For the past few months, I’ve been reading a lot on how people make decisions. Specifically, why decisions go wrong. Here’s an (extremely) brief summary of what I’ve learned.
Two Brains
Generally speaking, we approach problems and decisions from two directions: the rational and the emotional.
The rational brain has been held up since ancient Greece as the be all end all of decision making powers. It’s what makes us different from animals. The emotional brain, on the other hand, is said to be irrational — not to be trusted.
We’re Irrational Anyway
Turns out people are irrational anyway. It doesn’t make how much we tout our logical ability, everyone makes very predictable, irrational decisions. Knowing what sorts of errors we’re susceptible to, however, can often mitigate the effects of irrationality.
The Power of Intuition
Intuition is an extremely emotional thing. It’s that vibe we get from something, or the nagging sensation that we should make a given choice.
Human beings take in a lot of sensory data. In fact, there’s so much of it that we have to “tune out” some of it. That is, much of our sensory processing goes on in the unconscious mind. We do tend to notice changes in our environment and become acclimated to those changes over time, eventually tuning them out.
The output of our intuition, that feeling we get, is the result of all that subconscious data processing combined with our expertise and the ability of our brains have of detecting patterns. Our subconscious minds take all that data, run it through what we know (expertise), and strive to recognize any patterns or similarities between what’s happening and what we know or have experienced in the past.
If the subconscious mind recognizes a pattern and knows that the end result is undesirable, you will probably get a bad sense from your intuition. If the result is positive, however, you’ll probably get a good feeling from your intuition.
Intuition Isn’t Fool Proof
Human beings love patterns. We find them everywhere, even where there are none.
Take a slot machine. It’s designed so that you win at random intervals. Your brain, however, will start to recognize patterns in the numbers/spins and start to make predictions. Because the reward schedule is variable, the times when you win feel amazing and convince your subconscious brain that it did indeed recognize a pattern. Thus we continue playing — our intuition tells us to!
In reality, there is no pattern. Your intuition has failed.
Rationality is Good (Sometimes)
The key to make good decisions is recognizing both the power and failings of intuition and rationality.
Some decisions are better left to the rational/logical mind, such as the slot machine example above. Others are better done with the emotional brain and intuition.
The reality, however, is that we use a combination of both. Every decision is emotional and logical to some extent. We know this because of studies done on brain damage patients. Folks who have trouble with the portions of the brain that control emotion, also have trouble making decisions.
It’s up to us, as decisions makers, to recognize when one side of the mind is better suited to a task. We would then give that thought process more weight.
Satisficing and Maximizing (and High Pressure Situations)
There are two types of decision makers: those who pick the first option that works and those who search for the best option.
Of course, we are all combination of a satisficer and a maximizer. We care more about some decisions than others. Do we endlessly debate what toothpaste to buy? Nope. It’s not worth it (unless you’re really into toothpaste). But we often spend more time finding the best option for decisions about something important to us (what concert to attend, where to go for school, etc.).
When in a high pressure situation, however, we all turn in to satisficers. We pick the first option that comes to our mind and act. Mostly because of the whole flight or fight response, and because we’re often not in a position to think and weight options.
This is both good and dangerous. If the high pressure situation happens to be related to our field(s) of expertise, then the first solution we generate is often really good. That expertise helps our minds generate a good solution from the start. If the high pressure situation is something we’re not familiar with, however, our solution generating abilities are severely impaired.
This goes back to intuition. When we know a lot about a subject, our first judgments and decisions are often correct. It’s often best to trust these intuitions. When people are asked to explain, logically, why they made a given decision in their field of expertise, they often assign reasons. The reasons people assign often are incorrect (or, more colloquially: the reasons are bullshit).
Conclusion
Don’t be afraid to trust your intuition, but recognize where it can fail. Don’t be afraid to trust your logic, but remember that human beings act irrational in very predictable ways.
The Book List
How We Decide
Why We Make Mistakes
Blunder
Predictably Irrational
The Upside of Irrationality
The Paradox of Choice
Blink
Sources of Power